As we start yet another year, there's sure to be a slew of crazy predictions. Ranging from the Year of Linux to an 7 inch iPad. Here's some of the predictions and why they won't happen any time soon.
Google+ over powers facebook
Probability = 0%
Much like the defeat of myspace, it's not going to happen over night. Google+ needs to keep gaining users to be successful. I don't think it needs a lot of innovations, but just improvement and tweaks. Look at what facebook users complain about and don't make the same mistakes.
What's much more probable is that Google+ struggles to gain any ground in the social market as we know it. I can however, see google+ being a pretty big hit in the corporate world since Google Apps are so popular. Since it ties so tightly into google search, I'm not sure that everyone will want to use it for personal networking. That, which many cite as a strength, is it's ultimate weakness.
Microsoft buys Yahoo
Probability = 5%
It's not impossible, but given the rise of Google and Bing, Microsoft no longer needs Yahoo. 5 years ago this could have been a game changing move, but now Microsoft could buy AOL or Altavista and have the same impact as Yahoo. Sure, Yahoo still has millions of users, but it's on a quick decline. Yahoo needs a boost, but bing is doing well all by itself. Yahoo will end if it doesn't make changes quickly.
It's not to say that Yahoo won't find a buyer. I can see many corporations buying into yahoo thinking that it's still worth fighting for. I just have to call it as I see it, it's way pass it's prime and is destined to join AOL.
7 inch iPad
Probability = 5%
Everyone keeps pointing to the Kindle Fire's success, concluding there must be a need for a 7 inch tablet. But in all honesty, the kindle Fire sells because of it's price and features, not it's hardware. 10 inches are the defacto standard in tablets, and it will remain that way. There's very little savings in making something 3 inches smaller.
Truth, the iPod is an mini-tablet. If there is such a need for a mini-tablet or PDA, the ipod has it all covered. I love my 10 inch tablet, but definitely would not want a smaller one. Given the fact that most cell phones are already 4 inches, a 7 inch tablet just doesn't add that much.
Linux goes Mainstream
Probability = 0%
I'm a big fan of linux, and use it every day. But given the fall of ubuntu, there's no other distro out there that's going to make a big move. Mint, although popular, is attached to ubuntu, and will never go mainstream unless it breaks it ties. KDE is on the right track, but It needs to win over Windows users, which usually don't feel the need to switch.
As Windows Xp begins to die out, Linux does have a window of opportunity. But as with linux, it's lack of organization and direction is it's downfall. If Google ever was serious about building a linux distro, this would be a good time to start development.
RIP RIM
Probability = 49%
With the rise of Android and iOS, RIM is at the "fight or take flight" point. There's no choice in continuing the Blackberry platform. RIM should adopt android and put a custom UI over the top, or RIM will disappear along with the blackberry users. App developers are not going to be interested in another platform to write apps for. RIM however does have a dedicated user base, and it's their unique software that has kept them in the race this far. It would make much more sense for them to build on top of the android platform like Amazon did.